N24TD
04-22-2005, 04:07 PM
Mike,
Is da coming from da Nort' country - freezing level @ about 3000' and 80% prob of icing according to the briefer (who is just guessing too!!) until I get a ways into Illinois. It looks like the low is going to be moving out of Dayton a little sooner than the forecast this morning.
Hoping against hope that ceilings are high enough so stay out of visable moisture and going due South from MSN will get to warmer temps before the ceiling start to drop so we can climb up and either get between layers or on top. Then Ohio looks warm enough aloft so that an approach would be ice free. Only other concern is personal minimums are 800 and 1.5, thought I've done 250 and 3/4 in a heavy, driving rain - thus the reason for higher P/M's :-)
The only true forcast is 1-3 hours out and sometimes they're wrong on those. Hoping to get there, but only safely!
Mark & Barb
N24TD
>Probably different coming from the West, but I never saw anything lower than 45 degrees (at 8,000') coming up from the south (from SC). The Current US Temps map doesn't show anything lower than 43F anywhere between Wisconsin and Ohio. The Current Icing Potential link shows no significant icing potential below 9,000 feet, on your probable route of flight.
I've about reached the point where I consider ATC-provided weather to be almost useless, when it comes to forecasts as opposed to PIREPS and observations. The various real-time radar, satellite, etc. reports are far more dependable and predictable.
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Is da coming from da Nort' country - freezing level @ about 3000' and 80% prob of icing according to the briefer (who is just guessing too!!) until I get a ways into Illinois. It looks like the low is going to be moving out of Dayton a little sooner than the forecast this morning.
Hoping against hope that ceilings are high enough so stay out of visable moisture and going due South from MSN will get to warmer temps before the ceiling start to drop so we can climb up and either get between layers or on top. Then Ohio looks warm enough aloft so that an approach would be ice free. Only other concern is personal minimums are 800 and 1.5, thought I've done 250 and 3/4 in a heavy, driving rain - thus the reason for higher P/M's :-)
The only true forcast is 1-3 hours out and sometimes they're wrong on those. Hoping to get there, but only safely!
Mark & Barb
N24TD
>Probably different coming from the West, but I never saw anything lower than 45 degrees (at 8,000') coming up from the south (from SC). The Current US Temps map doesn't show anything lower than 43F anywhere between Wisconsin and Ohio. The Current Icing Potential link shows no significant icing potential below 9,000 feet, on your probable route of flight.
I've about reached the point where I consider ATC-provided weather to be almost useless, when it comes to forecasts as opposed to PIREPS and observations. The various real-time radar, satellite, etc. reports are far more dependable and predictable.
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~-->
Give the gift of life to a sick child.
Support St. Jude Children's Research Hospital's 'Thanks & Giving.'
http://us.click.yahoo.com/5iY7fA/6WnJAA/Y3ZIAA/SyTolB/TM
--------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Join BAC today and be a part of the ONLY Type Club for the Musketeer series!
www.beechaeroclub.org
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/musketeermail/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
musketeermail-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
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