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Thread: Current Temps And Icing Potential

  1. #1

    Current Temps And Icing Potential

    Mike,

    Is da coming from da Nort' country - freezing level @ about 3000' and 80% prob of icing according to the briefer (who is just guessing too!!) until I get a ways into Illinois. It looks like the low is going to be moving out of Dayton a little sooner than the forecast this morning.

    Hoping against hope that ceilings are high enough so stay out of visable moisture and going due South from MSN will get to warmer temps before the ceiling start to drop so we can climb up and either get between layers or on top. Then Ohio looks warm enough aloft so that an approach would be ice free. Only other concern is personal minimums are 800 and 1.5, thought I've done 250 and 3/4 in a heavy, driving rain - thus the reason for higher P/M's

    The only true forcast is 1-3 hours out and sometimes they're wrong on those. Hoping to get there, but only safely!

    Mark & Barb
    N24TD




    >Probably different coming from the West, but I never saw anything lower than 45 degrees (at 8,000') coming up from the south (from SC). The Current US Temps map doesn't show anything lower than 43F anywhere between Wisconsin and Ohio. The Current Icing Potential link shows no significant icing potential below 9,000 feet, on your probable route of flight.

    I've about reached the point where I consider ATC-provided weather to be almost useless, when it comes to forecasts as opposed to PIREPS and observations. The various real-time radar, satellite, etc. reports are far more dependable and predictable.



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  2. #2

    Current Temps And Icing Potential

    Dayton is forecast to have very high winds tomorrow - gusts to 32 Kts.
    Here's the latest:


    KDAY 221731Z 221818 16010KT P6SM OVC015
    TEMPO 1819 2SM -SHRA BR OVC004
    FM1900 22012KT P6SM BKN015
    TEMPO 1922 4SM -SHRA BKN025CB
    FM2200 34014KT P6SM OVC015
    TEMPO 2303 4SM -SHRA BR OVC008
    FM0300 35014G25KT 4SM -SHRA BR OVC012
    FM0800 35020G30KT P6SM OVC009
    TEMPO 0812 5SM -SHRA BR OVC005
    FM1200 32022G32KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC008=


    David Snodgrass
    BAC East Central Regional Director
    Beech Be23 N6083N
    North Manchester, IN


    -----Original Message-----
    From: musketeermail@yahoogroups.com
    [mailto:musketeermail@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Mark
    Sent: Friday, April 22, 2005 4:07 PM
    To: Mike Rellihan; mediareps@aol.com; cloydvanhook@imtt.com;
    Osman.Iftikhar@delta.com
    Cc: bfoote@e-mart.tv; bmitchell@aaep.org; n76lima@mindspring.com;
    tflight@systemfolder.com; musketeermail@yahoogroups.com
    Subject: [musketeermail] Re: Current Temps And Icing Potential


    Mike,

    Is da coming from da Nort' country - freezing level @ about 3000' and
    80% prob of icing according to the briefer (who is just guessing too!!)
    until I get a ways into Illinois. It looks like the low is going to be
    moving out of Dayton a little sooner than the forecast this morning.

    Hoping against hope that ceilings are high enough so stay out of visable
    moisture and going due South from MSN will get to warmer temps before
    the ceiling start to drop so we can climb up and either get between
    layers or on top. Then Ohio looks warm enough aloft so that an approach
    would be ice free. Only other concern is personal minimums are 800 and
    1.5, thought I've done 250 and 3/4 in a heavy, driving rain - thus the
    reason for higher P/M's

    The only true forcast is 1-3 hours out and sometimes they're wrong on
    those. Hoping to get there, but only safely!

    Mark & Barb
    N24TD




    >Probably different coming from the West, but I never saw anything lower
    than 45 degrees (at 8,000') coming up from the south (from SC). The
    Current US Temps map doesn't show anything lower than 43F anywhere
    between Wisconsin and Ohio. The Current Icing Potential link shows no
    significant icing potential below 9,000 feet, on your probable route of
    flight.

    I've about reached the point where I consider ATC-provided weather to be
    almost useless, when it comes to forecasts as opposed to PIREPS and
    observations. The various real-time radar, satellite, etc. reports are
    far more dependable and predictable.



    ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~-->
    Give the gift of life to a sick child.
    Support St. Jude Children's Research Hospital's 'Thanks & Giving.'
    http://us.click.yahoo.com/5iY7fA/6Wn...ZIAA/SyTolB/TM
    --------------------------------------------------------------------~->

    Join BAC today and be a part of the ONLY Type Club for the Musketeer
    series!

    www.beechaeroclub.org


    Yahoo! Groups Links









    ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~-->
    Help save the life of a child. Support St. Jude Children's Research Hospital's
    'Thanks & Giving.'
    http://us.click.yahoo.com/6iY7fA/5Wn...ZIAA/SyTolB/TM
    --------------------------------------------------------------------~->

    Join BAC today and be a part of the ONLY Type Club for the Musketeer series!

    www.beechaeroclub.org


    Yahoo! Groups Links

    <*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/musketeermail/

    <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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